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War in the 'grey zone': Russian intelligence preparations in Europe
Soviet poster from 1954 discouraging citizens from talking to foreign spies: ‘To talk is to help the enemy!’. © Poster soviétique-1954//Mark Astakhov/iStock//Indigo Publications

Running story
War in the 'grey zone': Russian intelligence preparations in Europe

To win the war in Ukraine on the both the military and political fronts, Moscow is deploying its hybrid warfare arsenal with ever-growing intensity. Projects to sabotage munitions production sites, destabilisation operations and increased data collection on European security institutions: the Russian intelligence community, from the GU military intelligence agency to the SVR foreign intelligence service, is remobilising officers and analysts and recruiting more sources, against a backdrop of escalating conflict and a potential expansion into neighbouring countries.

War in the 'grey zone': Russian intelligence preparations in Europe
Soviet poster from 1954 discouraging citizens from talking to foreign spies: ‘To talk is to help the enemy!’. © Poster soviétique-1954//Mark Astakhov/iStock//Indigo Publications

Russia
Russian military intel posing behind false flags to recruit sleeper agents in France

In anticipation of a possible escalation of its 'hybrid warfare' tactics on European territory, the GU is extending its campaign to recruit sources and destabilisation agents. The service is now targeting French security institutions.

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 29.04.2024

Russia, Ukraine
Wagner recruits drone experts for Central African Republic

Drone warfare continues to spread from the Ukrainian theatre to Africa. Intelligence Online has unearthed a new recruitment campaign by the Wagner militia group for the continent, where Ukrainian presence is growing.

On Shubba-Octagon's Telegram channel, many students post iconography - explicit or implicit - of Wagner. In this photo from March, the Isis hunter patch refers to the militia's campaigns in Syria.
LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 22.04.2024
On Shubba-Octagon's Telegram channel, many students post iconography - explicit or implicit - of Wagner. In this photo from March, the Isis hunter patch refers to the militia's campaigns in Syria.

Spotlight | Europe, Russia
Western intelligence concerned over Russia's military build-up near Baltic states

Moscow's strengthening of its offensive capabilities on the border with the Baltic states is of concern to the West, which is mobilising all its intelligence gathering capabilities. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told his top brass that one of their new army corps is to be deployed there.

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 29.03.2024

Spotlight | Africa, Russia
Wagner struggles to fill African vacancies

Two of the private military company's units in the Central African Republic are desperately short of fresh personnel. Intelligence Online is privy to recruitment efforts via closed chat groups on Telegram.

Russian officers from the Wagner group in Central Africa, July 2023.
LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 26.03.2024
Russian officers from the Wagner group in Central Africa, July 2023.

Europe, Russia
GU extends agent recruitment drive to Scandinavia, Balkans

The Russian military intelligence service is expanding its network of 'sleeper' agents beyond the Eastern European area it had initially targeted. Potential recruits are enlisted online, using a 'bot' that Intelligence Online has tested.

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 28.02.2024

East Europe, Russia
GU uses Wagner Belarusian false flag to recruit in Eastern Europe

The Russian military intelligence agency is using an anonymous bot on the Telegram social network to hire "sleeping" agents for hybrid warfare operations

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 13.02.2024

Europe, Russia, United States
Russia's SVR delivers damning report on Europe's munition production capacity

Like their colleagues in military intelligence, Russian foreign intelligence analysts have been looking into the question of Ukraine's munition needs - and concluded that Europe is vulnerable.

A Ukrainian soldier prepares a mortar shell in Donetsk, Ukraine, on 26 January 2024.
LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 12.02.2024
A Ukrainian soldier prepares a mortar shell in Donetsk, Ukraine, on 26 January 2024.

Hungary, Russia
Russian military intelligence notes Hungary's munition ambition

The GU has flagged the emergence of a Hungarian munitions industry, fostered by German partnerships, as part of its analysis of NATO's military-industrial capabilities.

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 07.02.2024

East Europe, Russia
East European munitions factories back in sights of Russian military intelligence

The GU has provided the National Security Council with its analysis of NATO's ability to supply Kyiv with the munitions it needs. Foremost among the entities to be monitored and potentially sabotaged are factories in Central and Eastern Europe.

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 06.02.2024

Spotlight | Hungary, Russia
Moscow revives timid attempt to recruit Hungarian fighters

As it continues to drive a recruitment campaign for Serbian fighters to bulk up its armed forces, Russia has dusted off a shelved project to do the same among the ethnic Hungarian population.

LogoSubscribers only Government Intelligence 04.09.2023

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Soviet poster from 1954 discouraging citizens from talking to foreign spies: ‘To talk is to help the enemy!’.

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War in the 'grey zone': Russian intelligence preparations in Europe

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